My 2019 Oscar Picks and Predictions

Here are my final picks for tonight's ceremony:

WRITING: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win: THE FAVOURITE
My Pick: FIRST REFORMED

WRITING: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win: BLACKKKLANSMAN
My Pick: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

VISUAL EFFECTS
Who Will Win: SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
My Pick: FIRST MAN

SOUND MIXING
Who Will Win: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
My Pick: BLACK PANTHER

SOUND EDITING
Who Will Win: A QUIET PLACE
My Pick: A QUIET PLACE

SHORT FILM: LIVE ACTION
Who Will Win: SKIN
My Pick: DETAINMENT

SHORT FILM: ANIMATED
Who Will Win: ANIMAL BEHAVIOR
My Pick: BAO

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Will Win: THE FAVOURITE
My Pick: MARY POPPINS RETURNS

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Who Will Win: "Shallow" from A STAR IS BORN
My Pick: "Shallow" from A STAR IS BORN

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Who Will Win: BLACK PANTHER
My Pick: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Who Will Win: VICE
My Pick: VICE

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Who Will Win: ROMA
My Pick: COLD WAR

FILM EDITING
Who Will Win: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
My Pick: VICE

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Who Will Win: LIFEBOAT
My Pick: END GAME

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Who Will Win: FREE SOLO
My Pick: RBG

DIRECTING
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron for ROMA
My Pick: Spike Lee for BLACKKKLANSMAN

COSTUME DESIGN
Who Will Win: THE FAVOURITE
My Pick: BLACK PANTHER

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who Will Win: ROMA
My Pick: THE FAVOURITE

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Who Will Win: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
My Pick: SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Regina King for IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
My Pick: Regina King for IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali for GREEN BOOK
My Pick: Richard E. Grant for CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Who Will Win: Glenn Close for THE WIFE
My Pick: Melissa McCarthy for CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Who Will Win: Rami Malek for BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
My Pick: Christian Bale for VICE

BEST PICTURE
Who Will Win: BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
My Pick: BLACK PANTHER

~~~

My 2018 Oscar Picks and Predictions

Here are my final picks for Sunday's ceremony:

WRITING: ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win: LADY BIRD
My Pick: LADY BIRD

WRITING: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who Will Win: CALL ME MY YOUR NAME
My Pick: MOLLY'S GAME

VISUAL EFFECTS
Who Will Win: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
My Pick: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

SOUND MIXING
Who Will Win: DUNKIRK
My Pick: THE SHAPE OF WATER

SOUND EDITING
Who Will Win: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
My Pick: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

SHORT FILM: LIVE ACTION
Who Will Win: MY NEPHEW EMMETT
My Pick: DEKALB ELEMENTARY

SHORT FILM: ANIMATED
Who Will Win: LOU
My Pick: GARDEN PARTY

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Will Win: THE SHAPE OF WATER
My Pick: THE SHAPE OF WATER

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Who Will Win: "Remember Me" from COCO
My Pick: "Mighty River" from MUDBOUND

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Who Will Win: DUNKIRK
My Pick: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Who Will Win: DARKEST HOUR
My Pick: VICTORIA & ABDUL

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Who Will Win: THE SQUARE
My Pick: THE SQUARE

FILM EDITING
Who Will Win: DUNKIRK
My Pick: I, TONYA

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Who Will Win: EDITH+EDDIE
My Pick: HEROIN(E)

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Who Will Win: ICARUS
My Pick: FACES PLACES

DIRECTING
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro for THE SHAPE OF WATER
My Pick: Guillermo del Toro for THE SHAPE OF WATER

COSTUME DESIGN
Who Will Win: PHANTOM THREAD
My Pick: PHANTOM THREAD

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Who Will Win: THE SHAPE OF WATER
My Pick: THE SHAPE OF WATER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Who Will Win: COCO
My Pick: LOVING VINCENT

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Allison Janney for I, TONYA
My Pick: Allison Janney for I, TONYA

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell for THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI
My Pick: Christopher Plummer for ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand for THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MISSOURI
My Pick: Sally Hawkins for THE SHAPE OF WATER

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Who Will Win: Gary Oldman for DARKEST HOUR
My Pick: Gary Oldman for DARKEST HOUR

BEST PICTURE
Who Will Win: GET OUT
My Pick: GET OUT

~~~

SIFF REVIEW ROUNDUP: Week 1

The 40th Seattle International Film Festival starts tomorrow and I've already seen cluster of great movies from the selection. Countries of origin in this batch include Norway, Canada, the United Kingdom and Greece.

Head over to Cinebanter for my capsule reviews of 1,000 Times Good Night and Burt's Buzz, and full reviews of Mirage Men, From Neurons to Nirvana: The Great Medicines and Standing Aside, Watching.

Stay tuned for more in the coming days!

~~~

My Golden Globe Picks

Though the Golden Globes aren't as prestigious as the Oscars, and they don't really serve as a great predictor for those award wins, I do stand by my statement that they're Hollywood's best party, and most often the most entertaining of all the award shows to watch.

I'm thrilled that Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are returning to host again this January (and next). I'm elated that Netflix shows and stars are getting some love in the television categories. I still think it's ridiculous they split the comedies and dramas.

But enough of that.

Here is who I would vote for if I had an official ballot:

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television

JOSH CHARLES
THE GOOD WIFE

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television

SOFIA VERGARA
MODERN FAMILY

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television 
 
MICHAEL DOUGLAS    
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television

ELISABETH MOSS             
TOP OF THE LAKE 
 
Best Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television

AMERICAN HORROR STORY: COVEN

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical 

ZOOEY DESCHANEL    
NEW GIRL

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical 

JASON BATEMAN  
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical

GIRLS

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama

BRYAN CRANSTON
BREAKING BAD

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama
 
ROBIN WRIGHT
HOUSE OF CARDS

Best Television Series - Drama

BREAKING BAD

Best Original Song - Motion Picture

“ORDINARY LOVE” — MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM
Music by: Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr., Brian Burton
Lyrics by: Bono

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

HANS ZIMMER
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

BARKHAD ABDI
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

LUPITA NYONG'O       
12 YEARS A SLAVE

Best Foreign Language Film

THE HUNT (DENMARK)

Best Animated Feature Film

DESPICABLE ME 2

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

LEONARDO DICAPRIO
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

JULIE DELPY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

JEFF POPE
PHILOMENA

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

TOM HANKS
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

CATE BLANCHETT
BLUE JASMINE

Best Motion Picture - Drama

PHILOMENA